How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the almost lengthy war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Alex Palmer
Alex Palmer

Elara is a crypto enthusiast and betting analyst with over a decade of experience in blockchain technology and online wagering.

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